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30 April 1975 was the day that Saigon fell. And it fell because the government did not have its fingers on the pulse of the nation. 30 April 2008 may be the day that Barisan Nasional -- and therefore Umno as well -- falls after getting a beating on 8 March 2008.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin Saigon finally fell on 30 April 1975 after a protracted war that saw countless lives lost. The fall of Saigon was not about superior firepower because that is exactly what the Vietcong did not possess. If anyone had superior firepower it was the vanquished, not the victor. But in a mere three days the superior Americans were sent packing back to Washington with their tails between their legs.
The fall of Saigon and eventually that of the entire Vietnam can be attributed to one fundamental problem. The government was in denial mode. They did not understand what the real problem was and they failed to recognise that the army no longer had any will to win. The war against communism can’t be won with guns alone. The people must also have the desire to reject communism. This was the secret of the British success in its war against the Communist Party of Malaya.
The British realised that the government cannot win the war against communism or communist terrorism. It has to be the people themselves who must want to reject communism. To achieve this, the British embarked on a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the people. It can’t be a war of guns or of superior firepower. It has to be a ‘war’ of winning over the support of the people.
This was what the British saw. But this was not what the Americans saw. So Malaya sustained while Vietnam fell. And the Malaysian government took the route of the Americans rather than that of the British in the recent general election. And the 8 March 2008 general election proved what a disastrous route this can be. Barisan Nasional thought it had superior firepower and it threw everything it had at the opposition. But where the opposition lacked in money and media control it more than made up for in strategy. And where the government failed, the opposition succeeded. And where the opposition lacked in ‘firepower’, it compensated for by winning the hearts and minds of the voters.
This morning, Umno organised a forum at the Singgahsana Hotel in Petaling Jaya to conduct a post-mortem on the recent general election. The purpose of the forum was to explore what went wrong and where Umno should go from here. But judging by the rhetoric and statements that came out of that forum today, it is clear that Umno still does not get it. They still do not have their fingers on the pulse. They still fail to understand what went wrong on 8 March 2008 and what needs to be done to restore the lost fortunes of the party that is the lead partner in the ruling coalition.
30 April 1975 was the day that Saigon fell. And it fell because the government did not have its fingers on the pulse of the nation. 30 April 2008 may be the day that Barisan Nasional -- and therefore Umno as well -- falls after getting a beating on 8 March 2008. The reasons are clear, though it may not be clear to Umno. But what is more of interest is not the reason for the 8 March 2008 ‘disaster’ but what is happening behind the scenes to cushion the fall of those who walk in the corridors of power.
Those who walk in the corridors of power no longer have any doubts that 30 April 2008 may be the day the newly-formed opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, takes the reins of power. With its 82 seats in Parliament it is already more than halfway there. All it needs is another 30 seats to give it a simple majority in Parliament. If it gets more than that, even better, but 30 seats will do the trick for the meantime. Once the Barisan Nasional government falls, the stragglers will swing over easily enough because politicians always like to associate themselves with the winner, never with the loser.
Patrick Lim tried his best to salvage whatever little left he could salvage. As soon as the results of the election became known, his fortune started dwindling at a rapid pace. When the stock market opened the Monday following the elections, he saw more than a quarter billion Ringgit disappear from his books. It was the most painful Monday in his entire life -- as it was for the rest of the fourth floor cronies who were left holding paper that was no longer worth what it was just two days before that.
Seeing that Penang was now an opposition state, his flagship project, Penang Global City Centre, was doomed to become history; and the market reacted. When it was announced that approval for the project had never been given in the first place, that nailed his plans to change the entire landscape of Penang Island and turn into a New York skyline; and the market reacted even more. He had only Terengganu left, which thankfully was still a Barisan Nasional state. And if he could convince his bankers that Terengganu was still on, then maybe they will ease up on the margin calls.
But it was still too early to pop Champagne. Terengganu may be a Barisan Nasional state but it appears that His Majesty, The Agong, had other plans as to who should be the new Menteri Besar. The Agong knows about the RM1.2 billion a year oil royalty that has now been changed to wang ehsan and which comes under the direct supervision of the Prime Minister’s Department. The Agong also knows that ever since Idris Jusoh was appointed the manager of the wang ehsan in 2000, more than RM8 billion has disappeared into the pockets of Patrick Lim and his retinue of cronies. And The Agong said, enough is enough; the pilferage must come to an end!
Patrick Lim broke out into cold sweat when it was announced that The Agong has his own ideas on who should be the Menteri Besar of Terengganu and that it is not going to be Idris Jusoh. Patrick Lim sent The Agong a SMS with an offer of RM300 million if His Majesty would maintain status quo. The gall of this uncouth, uncultured, crossbreed of a Chinaman. Sending The Agong a SMS is bad enough. Not even The Agong’s uncle would do such a biadap thing. But to attempt to bribe The Agong on top of that is the height of insolence that tantamount to treason.
When The Agong did not respond, Patrick Lim made a beeline for Terengganu in an attempt to have a personal audience with His Majesty to pursue the RM300 million offer. The Agong made Patrick Lim sit in the waiting room the entire afternoon and at 5.00pm His Majesty sent his ‘guest’ off in tears with the message that he is persona non grata in the palace.
Patrick Lim was now desperate. He needed to save his Terengganu operation. With Penang now in shambles, Terengganu is all he has left with which to convince his bankers that he is still bankable. He went to meet Ahmad Said and offered the new Menteri Besar RM40 million if he would agree to turn down the offer for the top post and instead settle for the post of Deputy Menteri Besar. This would allow Idris Jusoh the top post, which would then enable Patrick Lim to retain Terengganu as his playground. But Ahmad Said refused the offer of RM40 million and Patrick Lim’s hope of getting his hands on the RM1.2 billion a year shattered.
Yes, 30 April 2008 may yet become like Saigon of 30 April 1975. Parliament is expected to convene on 28 April 2008 and if Anwar can convince another 30 Parliamentarians from Barisan Nasional to swing to his side then, with the 82 he already controls, he can form the new federal government. But can he do that?
Sabah and Sarawak have 54 Parliament seats, all Barisan Nasional, while only 14 are Umno. Without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional will have only 86 Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, a majority of just four seats over the opposition’s 82. And without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional cannot form the government, not even with a simple majority.
Sabah and Sarawak know that Barisan Nasional needs their seats. Yet, they gave Sabah and Sarawak just five Deputy Minister posts and ‘worthless’ ministries on top of that. Their 54 Parliament seats are not going to come cheap. They can decide to throw their seats behind the 86 Barisan Nasional seats or behind the 82 opposition seats. Whomsoever gets their 54 seats will form the government. And the one who will get their 54 seats will be the one who comes up with the best offer.
Sabah and Sarawak are each earning about RM600 million a year from the oil royalty. If the 5% oil royalty is increased to 20%, this will be close to RM2.5 billion a year, RM5 billion for both states combined. And if two Deputy Prime Minister posts are created and Second Deputy Prime Minister is rotated between Sabah and Sarawak, then that will complete the package. And the opposition has agreed to grant Sabah and Sarawak all this while Barisan Nasional, over the last two decades, will not even honour the Twenty-Point Agreement that was the basis for the formation of this nation called Malaysia.
Yes, 30 April 2008. Will that be the date of the fall of Barisan Nasional as was the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975? Saigon fell because the government lost touch with the ground. If Barisan Nasional falls it will also be because the government has lost touch with the ground. Umno, today, in its forum at the Singgahsana Hotel, talked about Malay nationalism and Islam. Barisan Nasional got a thrashing on 8 March 2008 because the people are tired of all this talk about Malay nationalism and Islam. And this continued talk about Malay nationalism and Islam will be what will seal the Barisan Nasional coffin for good on 30 April 2008.
For further reading, on 28 March 2008, The Malaysian Insider ran an article called ‘Patrick Lim - jetsetter with a bulls-eye on his back’. Considering that The Malaysian Insider is owned by Kalimullah Masheerul Hassan and Brendon Pereira, it makes one wonder what their game plan is. After all, Kalimullah and Brendon are known fourth floor cronies. Is this a sign that even the fourth floor is jettisoning Patrick Lim and leaving him to flounder in his massive bank debts?
Of special interest is the New Straits Times report below about Maybank buying over Temasek’s interest in an Indonesian bank at RM3 billion more than what they should be paying. The interesting part, of course, is about who brokered this deal with Singapore and why Maybank was made to pay RM3 billion over-value.
Yes, the rats are deserting the sinking ship. And they are cashing out quickly so that they can take with them as much money as they can when they desert the ship. If the ship sinks on 30 April 2008, as may be the case….well, never mind, because by then billions will have been transferred out of the country.
Daim took RM42 billion with him when he bailed out just before Tun Dr Mahathir left the scene. Expect the present figure to be close to that when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi leaves the scene. RM21 billion has already been moved just before the last general election. They only need another RM21 billion to match Daim’s RM42 billion. And the Maybank deal just reduced that RM21 billion to RM18 billion so there is not that far to go. If the new government is formed on 30 April 2008 there may be nothing left in the kitty. I, for one, would not want to be in that new government. ******************************
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